Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

My last article on AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) was published a bit more than a month ago. To wit, that article was titled "AGNC Investment: Let Your Profits Run" and was published on February 11, ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

Last week was a big week for markets, as the trade war that everyone has been warning about has finally arrived. Despite what some of our most epic posters might tell you, the trade war is not off ...

Ever since Trump announced his trade war and Wall Street goliaths like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs said that they did not price Trump’s signature policy into their market expectations, the yield ...